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With the potential to be more global than any other media, the Internet’s global impact cannot be understated. We project global Internet advertising to grow from $4 billion in 1999 to $31 billion in 2003. We expect global direct eMarketing (e-mail) to grow from under $1 billion in 1999 to over $2.4 billion in 2003. Thus, total Internet Advertising and direct eMarketing is expected to grow from $4.5 billion in 1999 to over $33 billion in 2003. U. S. Internet Advertising Conclusions There is a great deal of discrepancy among the available advertising forecasts; therefore, we show several of them to allow investors to make their own assumptions. Barter revenues are one source of the confusion regarding Internet advertising. Barter occurs when a publisher trades advertising space on its own site for advertising space on another publisher’s site. Estimates of the amount of advertising accounted for by barter range up to 20%, but we tend to agree with the Internet Advertising Bureau’s estimate of 5%. We have endeavored to eliminate all barter revenues from our forecast.
Figure 34 Barter as a Percentage of Web Advertising (3Q99)
The Internet Advertising Bureau estimates that U.S. Internet advertising was $301 million in 1996 and that it grew 180% to $843 million in 1997 and another 114% to $1.8 billion in 1998. For 1999, we expect that it grew 121% to $4.0 billion. In 2000, Internet advertising should grow 66% to $6.6 billion. We forecast that Internet advertising will reach $11 billion in 2001.
Table 80 U.S. Internet Advertising and Direct eMarketing Compared to Traditional Advertising and Direct Marketing
Table 81 U.S. Internet User Forecast
Part 20; Residential and Business Use ,
Part 21; Pageviews , Part 22; Advertising vs. Direct Marketing , Part 23; Investment Conclusion
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