Corey Katir: Internet Advertising, Online Advertising, eMarketing Analysis |
Internet Advertising Analysis Part 20; Residential and Business Use
We divide Internet users into two types: residential and business. We have tried to eliminate all overlap between these two groups. We reach our residential Internet user forecast through two methods. In the first, we start with the U.S. population, while in the second, we start with the number of households (connections, subscriptions, etc.). Residential users. We estimate that in 1996 there were about 28 million residential Internet users, growing to 37 million in 1997, a 33% increase. This number then grew 29% in 1998 to 48 million, and we estimate there was a 21% increase to 58 million in 1999. Residential Internet user growth should slow to 14% in 2000 (66 million residential users).
Business users. We estimate in 1996 there were about 14 million business Internet users, which grew to 18 million in 1997, a 30% increase, and then to 24 million in 1998, a 30% gain. For 1999, we estimate there was 34% growth to nearly 32 million. In 2000, the number of business users should rise 32% to 42 million business, and another 25% in 2001. Total Internet Users We believe that there were nearly 42 million Internet users in 1996 — that 16% of the U.S. population used the Internet. We have not attempted to adjust for the overlap between residential and business users, as we do not feel that there is sufficient data to do so. Thus, we consider a user to be a separate entity if they have both a home and work Internet connection.
The number of users grew by 32% to 55 million in 1997 and by 29% to nearly 72 million in 1998. For 1999, we estimate there was 25% growth in users, to a total of 90 million. In 2000, we expect 20% growth to 108 million. In 2001, we forecast 21% growth to 130 million — 47% of the U.S. population.
Internet Usage
In addition to the number of people on line, the amount of time each user spends on line is of critical importance. This can be arrived at in two ways. One way is to forecast the amount of time that a user spends online for an average session. This is then multiplied by the average number of times that a user goes online in a week/month/year. This gives the total number of hours spent online per user. Alternatively, one can start with a projection for users and divide this by the total time all users spend online to come up with a forecast for the amount of time spent online by each user.
Hours of usage per user. We estimate that in 1996, the average Internet user spent about 61 hours online. Alternatively, the average user spent only 5.1 hours online each month in 1996. In 1997, the average user increased his/her usage to 68 hours, or 11% growth. On a monthly basis, the average user spent 5.6 hours online. In 1998, Internet usage increased 16% to an estimated 78 hours per user. On a monthly basis, the average user spent 6.5 hours on line. We estimate that Internet usage climbed 21% to 95 hours per user per year in 1999, or 7.9 hours per month. For 2000 and 2001, we expect that the average user will spend 119 and 143 hours online, respectively. This represents 26% and 20% growth in usage. On a monthly basis, we expect that the average user will spend 9.9 and 11.9 hours on line in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Usage is the critical assumption underlying a great many Internet projections. We have taken a look at the available historical usage figures provided by Media Metrix and Nielsen// NetRatings, as well as projections of future Internet usage by Jupiter, Forrester, and others to arrive at our own forecast for usage. There is a great deal of discrepancy between forecasts, and more surprisingly, between the historical data as well. Media Metrix and Nielsen//NetRatings differ in their methodologies. Media Metrix claims to have a 70,000-user panel, consisting of 50,000 home users, 7,000 work users, and 20,000 international users. Nielsen//NetRatings claims to have a 85,000-user panel, consisting of 43,000 home users, 7,000 work users and 35,000 international users.
Media Metrix began life as a PC monitoring firm, keeping tabs on all of the computer programs that were in operation. From this sprang the idea to monitor Web sites. On the other hand, Nielsen//NetRatings is an independent arm of Nielsen Media Research, which is the #1 television measurement service. In comparing the data, we come to several general conclusions. We find that Nielsen//NetRatings typically has higher days of usage than Media Metrix (an average of 4+ days a month and 50 days a year). However, Media Metrix typically calculates a longer online session (about 11 minutes longer than Nielsen//NetRatings). This is long enough to make up for the greater number of times that Nielsen// NetRatings believes people go on line. In fact, Media Metrix calculates that users spend more time on line per month (an average of about 14 minutes longer) and per year than Nielsen//NetRatings. Media Metrix also calculates a higher number of pageviews than Nielsen//NetRatings on a per session (about 17 more pageviews), per hour (about 12 more pageviews), per month, and per year basis.
Table 82 Nielsen//NetRatings vs. Media Metrix Usage (Average Month — September 1999)
Continue with:
Part 21; Pageviews , Part 22; Advertising vs. Direct Marketing , Part 23; Investment Conclusion
Corey Katir Brings you Lady Gaga News ; Corey Katir Brings you Eminem News ; Corey Katir Brings you Justin Bieber News
Corey Katir Brings you Michael Jackson News ; Corey Katir Brings you Lil Wayne News ; Corey Katir Brings you Miley Cyrus News
Corey Katir Brings you Katy Perry News ; Corey Katir Brings you Shakira News ; Corey Katir Brings you Rihanna News
Corey Katir Brings you Drake News ; Corey Katir Brings you Christina Aguilera News
|
||
| © 2002-2004 Corey Katir Internet Advertising, Online Advertising, Internet Marketing, Branding, eMarketing Services | Optimized by classicbranding.com |